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Weekly: VASCO Data Security International surges 18.1% in the past week, outperforming 97.87% of stocks



News Bites US Markets
February 19, 2011

VASCO Data Security International (VDSI.O), NASDAQ's 8th largest Computer Integrated Systems company by market capitalisation, surged US$1.47 (or 18.1%) to US$9.60 in the week ending Friday, February 18. In the NASDAQ market of 2,388 stocks traded today, the stock has a trailing week relative strength of 97.87 indicating it has outperformed 97.87% of the market. The stock rose for a third week on Friday. Compared with the NASDAQ-100 index which rose 13.3 points (or 0.6%) in the week, this represented a relative price change of 17.5%.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Uptrend

Price Trend: the price soared 22.4% in the last month. In the last six months the number of rises outnumbered falls 18:9 or 2:1.

Relativities: compared with the NASDAQ-100 index which rose 2.7% for the month, this represented a relative price increase of 19.7% for the month. In the NASDAQ market of 2,388 stocks traded today, the stock has a 6-month relative strength of 79 indicating it has outperformed 79% of the market.

Moving average price (MAP): the price to 200-day MAP ratio is 1.35, a bullish indicator. The stock is trading above both its MAPs and the 50-day MAP of US$8.223 is higher than the 200-day MAP of US$7.132, a bullish indicator. The 200-day MAP has increased to US$7.132. An increase is another bullish indicator.

Exponential Moving Average Price (EMAP) [with higher weightage to recent prices]: the price to 50-day EMAP ratio is 1.2, a bullish indicator. The 50-day EMAP has increased to US$8.145. An increase is another bullish indicator.

Breakout: in the last six months the stock has hit a new 52-week high twice. The bulls are maintaining control with price open, high, low and close exceeding yesterday's levels.

Support: the support price is hovering at the US$7.10 level. Volume traded at the fragile support price zone was 0.2 times average during the two occasions when the support price was breached. In the last one month the first low was at US$7.10 on Jan 28, the second decline halted at US$7.23 on Jan 31.

Resistance: in the last one month the highest was at US$9.85 on Feb 17, the second advance halted at US$9.68 on Feb 18.

PRICE VOLUME DYNAMICS

Volatility: the stock traded between an intraweek low of US$8.10 and a high of US$9.85.

Volume and turnover period: there were 1,675,704 shares worth US$15.6 million traded. The volume was 2.4 times average trading of 709,297 shares. The turnover rate in the 12 months to date was 95.9% (or a turnover period of 1 year 15 days).

% Discount to high: the last price is at a discount of 2.5% to the 12-month high of US$9.85 one-day ago on 17 Feb, 2011.

Volume weighted price (VWP): the price is at a premium of 12.2% to the 3-month volume weighted average price of US$8.558. In the past year the premium has been greater than 12.2% just six times, suggesting a topish level and cautious buying at the current price.

THIS WEEK'S PRICE PERFORMANCE RANK IN SECTORS

The stock is in 2 sectors.

The following index and sector rose setting the trend for its rise of 18.1% for the week (rank by percentage price change of stock for 1 week;12 months in sector/index in brackets):

Total NASDAQ Market (rank 45;1103 out of 2521) which was up 17.4 points or 0.9% to 1,993.0,

NASDAQ-100 index which was up 13.3 points or 0.6% to 2,392.5

The stock's rise went against the trend set by Computer Integrated Systems sector (rank 1;12 out of 21) which was down 6.9 points or 0.3% to 2,322.7

The Computer Integrated Systems company sector is the 48th largest by market capitalisation out of NASDAQ's 69 sectors. It is made up of 21 publicly listed companies with a combined market capitalisation of US$10 billion. In 2010 earnings for the sector grew 5.9% compared with those of 2009. The main players in the sector include MICROS Systems, Mentor Graphics, Radiant Systems and FARO Technologies.

RELATIVE VALUATION INDICATORS [RVI]

VASCO Data Security International vs Computer Integrated Systems sector [Computer Integrated Systems sector Average in Brackets]

Better than Sector Average: Return on Equity of 10.9% [2.0%], rank 597 out of 1414; Return on Assets of 8.9% [1.2%], rank 334 out of 1384.

SHAREHOLDER RETURNS

Trailing five weeks: the stock rose fifteen times (60% of the time), fell nine times (36% of the time) and was untraded once (4% of the time). The volume was 0.9 times average trading of 3,546,486 shares. The value of US$1,000 invested five weeks ago is US$1,131 [vs US$1,031 for the NASDAQ-100 index] for a capital gain of US$131.

Trailing thirteen weeks: the stock fell thirty one times (48% of the time), rose thirty one times (48% of the time), was unchanged twice (3% of the time) and was untraded once (2% of the time). The volume was 0.8 times average trading of 9,220,865 shares. The value of US$1,000 invested thirteen weeks ago is US$1,115 [vs US$1,122 for the NASDAQ-100 index] for a capital gain of US$115.

Trailing Two Years: the value of US$1,000 invested two years ago is US$1,526 [vs US$2,024 for the NASDAQ-100 index] for a capital gain of US$526.

FINANCIALS

Quarterly Report:

In the quarter to September 30, 2010 total revenue of US$26.3 million; net profit of US$2.2 million.

Annual Report for the year ended December 31, 2009 (year-on-year comparisons with previous corresponding period)-

Favourable Changes: total liabilities to total assets down 28.14% to 0.2; Net tangible assets per share up 13.75% to $US2.85589; Retained earnings to total assets up 42.41% to 27.7%.

Unfavourable Changes: net profit slumps 51.17% to $US11.9m; EPS slumps 51.56% to 31.0 U.S. cents; EBIT Margin down 30.72% to 15.1%; total liabilities to EBITDA up 39.59% to 1.5. While this compares favourably with the Joseph Piotroski benchmark of <5, the trend is unfavourable; although the Total Liabilities to Operating Cash Flow ratio of 1.9 also compares favourably with the Joseph Piotroski benchmark of <4, it had deteriorated by 36.58% from the previous year.; current ratio down 98.92% to 0.04; total number of shares outstanding up 0.44% to 37,319,000; EBIT to total assets down 48.92% to 11.5%; Sales to total assets down 26.28% to 0.8.

Major Common Size Ratios: cash to total assets up from 45.11% to 50.93%; current debtors to total assets up from 19.5% to 22.9%; current inventory to total assets down from 10.45% to 6.79%; fixed assets to total assets up from 3.26% to 3.91%; intangibles to total assets down from 1.56% to 1.35%; cost of goods sold to sales down from 30.84% to 30.03%; sales and marketing expenses to sales up from 26.59% to 29.79%; Administration expenses to Sales up from 12.21% to 15.91%; EBITDA to Sales down from 22.22% to 15.51%; profit before tax to sales down from 21.75% to 15.07%.

OPEN INTEREST TREND AND INTERPRETATION

Open interest hit a four-month high.

Same day trend: open interest rose for a fifth consecutive day; the stock advanced for a tenth straight day. Open interest increased 2.1% from 2,455 to 2,506. Combined with the price rising 1.3 this suggests the market is strong.

Trailing one week trend: open interest rose for a third week. Open interest soared 44.7% from 1,732 a week ago while the stock soared 17.8% from US$8.13 a week ago. Combined with the rising price this also suggests the market is strong.

Trailing one month trend: open interest soared 56.1% from 1,605 a month ago while the stock soared 22.4% from US$8.32 a month ago. Combined with the rising price this also suggests the market is strong.

Open interest as % of issued capital: 250,600 shares, representing 0.7 of the issued capital.

[ranked 654 out of 1060 stocks in descending order]

Put:call ratio: open interest contracts on exchange traded options included 602 put contracts and 1,904 call contracts.

The put:call ratio was 1:3.2, up 1.0 for the day, down 25.9 in the past week and down 27.5 in the past month.

Top three traded call options [volume of contracts in brackets; 1 contract is 100 shares]

Exercise US$10.0; Expires Mar 19: 25.0c down 37.5 [33]

Exercise US$10.0; Expires Jun 18: 75.0c up 7.1 [32]

Exercise US$7.50; Expires Mar 19: US$2.15 up 2.4 [5]

Top traded put options [volume of contracts in brackets; 1 contract is 100 shares]

Exercise US$7.50; Expires Sep 17: 35.0c down 30.0 [10]

MARKET SHARE

VASCO Data Security International vs Computer Integrated Systems sector [Computer Integrated Systems sector Total in Brackets]

Net Profit of US$11.9 million [17.6% of Aggregate Sector Net Profit of US$67.4 million; up from -6.4% in the previous year.]

EBIT of US$15.3 million [8.6% of Aggregate Sector EBIT of US$178.5 million; up from -15.6% in the previous year.]

MCap of US$358.3 million[3.6% of Aggregate Sector MCap of US$10 billion; down from 4.3% in the previous year.]

FUNDAMENTALS

Earnings: The earnings yield of 3.3% is 0.9 times the 10-year bond yield of 3.6%.

P/S: The price/sales ratio is 3.5.

Price to NTA: The price to net tangible asset backing per share is 3.4.

ISSUED CAPITAL

Based on 37,319,000 issued shares the market capitalisation is US$358.3 million.

ACTIVITIES

VASCO Data Security International, Inc. through its operating subsidiaries, designs, develops, markets and supports open standards-based hardware and software security systems that manage, and secure access to information assets. The Company designs, develops, markets, and supports Strong User Authentication and Public Key Infrastructure (PKI) products and services for e-business and e-commerce. The Company's Strong User Authentication is delivered via its hardware and software DIGIPASS security products, (collectively DIGIPASSES), most of which incorporate an electronic signature capability. Some of its DIGIPASSES are compliant with the Europay MasterCard Visa (EMV) standard and are compatible with MasterCard's and VISA's Chip Authentication Program (CAP). Some of the Company's DIGIPASS units are Initiative for Open Authentication (OATH) compliant.

TOP MANAGEMENT

The chief executive officer and chairman is T. Kendall Hunt and the chief financial officer is Clifford K. Bown.

REPORTED BUYING

Reported Buying:

January 11: VASCO Data Security International insider buys

VASCO Data Security International (VDSI.O) insider Bown Clifford K bought 13,980 shares worth approximately US$117,013 on January 07, 2011. The last price was US$8.40.

January 11: VASCO Data Security International insider buys

VASCO Data Security International (VDSI.O) insider Cullinane Michael P bought 10,760 shares worth approximately US$90,061 on January 07, 2011. The last price was US$8.40.

January 11: VASCO Data Security International insider buys

VASCO Data Security International (VDSI.O) insider Fox John Nelson Jr bought 10,760 shares worth approximately US$90,061 on January 07, 2011. The last price was US$8.40.

January 11: VASCO Data Security International insider buys

VASCO Data Security International (VDSI.O) insider Hunt T Kendall bought 26,100 shares worth approximately US$218,457 on January 07, 2011. The last price was US$8.40.

January 11: VASCO Data Security International insider buys

VASCO Data Security International (VDSI.O) insider Walter John R bought 10,760 shares worth approximately US$90,061 on January 07, 2011. The last price was US$8.40.

BUSINESS NEWS ROUND UP

The last 5 snippets were:

February 17: VASCO Reports Results for Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2010

[News Story] http://www. nasdaq. com/aspx/company-news-story. aspxstoryid=201102170300pr_news_usprx____cg49621&title=vasco-reports-results-for-fourth-quarter-and-full-year-2010 Source: NASDAQ Stock Exchange

February 15: VASCO to Release Q4 and Full Year 2010 Results on February 17 - Dial-In Info

[News Story] http://www. nasdaq. com/aspx/company-news-story. aspxstoryid=201102150300pr_news_usprx____cg47527&title=vasco-to-release-q4-and-full-year-2010-results-on-february-17---dial-in-info Source: NASDAQ Stock Exchange

February 09: VASCO's DIGIPASS Technology to be embedded into Intel Identity Protection Technology (IPT)

Oakbrook Terrace, Illinois, Zurich, Switzerland, February 09, 2011 - VASCO Data Security Inc. (Nasdaq: VDSI; www. vasco. com ), a leading software security company specializing in authentication products, today announced that VASCO's DIGIPASS authentication technology can now utilize the embedded token of Intel(Registered) Identity Protection Technology (Intel(Registered) IPT).

January 31: VASCO introduces its enhanced North America Channel Partner Program

OAKBROOK TERRACE, Illinois and ZURICH, Switzerland - January 31, 2011 - VASCO Data Security International Inc. (Nasdaq: VDSI; www. vasco. com), a leading software security company specializing in strong authentication products, announced today that it has enhanced its North America Channel Partner Program for resellers.

January 26: VASCO awards Computrad for its integration at BetClic

OAKBROOK TERRACE, Illinois and ZURICH, Switzerland - January 26, 2011 - VASCO Data Security International, Inc. (Nasdaq: VDSI; www. vasco. com), a leading software security company specializing in strong authentication products, announces that Computrad has been awarded for the integration of VASCO's IDENTIKEY Enterprise and DIGIPASS technologies at the renowned betting website BetClic.

Source: www. BuySellSignals. com

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