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Ella Shum,
Strategies Unlimited
LED component revenue for lighting applications reached $3.11 billion in 2012, narrowly dethroning the large area display backlight segment at $3.06 billion. The worldwide market for LED components was $13.7 billion and is expected to grow to $15 billion in 2017, for a CAGR of 1.8%.
The total illumination market for 2012 is estimated at $14.52 billion. LED lighting includes LED replacement lamps and luminaires is estimated at $11.72 billion—an increase of 26% between 2011 and 2012—and it is forecast to grow at a CAGR of 12% over 2012-2017.
LEDs used in large display (TV and monitors) backlights also reached a new record at $3.06 billion in 2012. This is chiefly due to the success in penetrating the CCFL stronghold of the 32-inch TV. "Chubby" TVs will spread from 32 inches in both directions in size. It is expected to reach TVs 42 to 50 inches size in 2013-2014. With drastic reduction in number of LEDs used and rapid price erosion, the large display market for LEDs is expected to decline to $1.7 billion in 2017.
The total market for LEDs in the automotive segment was $1.4 billion in 2012 and is projected to grow to $2.1 billion in 2017. The number of cars with LED headlights nearly doubled in 2012. Revenue for 2012 was $97 million and the five-year CAGR is projected to be 36%.
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| Worldwide market for LED components. Source: Strategies Unlimited. |
While LED revenue from tablets grew 54% to $578 million, the overall mobile segment dropped 3%. The drop in notebook backlight demand, the OLED success in smart phone display, and the general demand decline for other small and medium display will take the segment down to $958 million in 2017, for a 5 year CAGR of -7%.
The signage segment is expected to grow to $2.4 billion in 2017, for a CAGR of 7%. Use of LEDs in signage and channel letters grew 7% to $1.7 billion in 2012. Full-color signs contributed more than 80% of the revenue.
On the supply side, 11 companies accounted for more than 72% of the LED market. We arrived at these figures after analyzing market demand as well as the supply-side activity of more than 54 LED component suppliers. Their rank by revenue of packaged LED components, is:
- Nichia
- Samsung LED
- Osram Opto Semiconductors
- LG Innotek
- Seoul Semiconductor*
- Philips Lumileds*
- Cree
- TG
- Sharp
- Everlight*
- Lumens*
(*Companies have the same ranking when the difference in revenue is within the margin of error. Revenue includes sales of packaged LEDs of 30 lm/W or more.)
The LED packaging industry is expected to grow modestly at a CAGR of 1.8% in the next five years. 2013 should see less severe price drops as excess capacity is slowly absorbed by the rise of lighting applications.
Solid State Technology | Volume 56 | Issue 2 | February | 2013
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